Oscar Predictions

February 22, 2015 at 4:50 pm | Posted in 2014 | Leave a comment
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Well, just in the nick of time (check the time stamp, kids, this is published before the show starts), I have managed to get my predictions out.  Let’s see if I can keep the guessing streak up, though there is little that is up for speculation this year.  Unless, we get some great surprises (and that might be fun), most of the winners are pretty well known already.  Here we go:

 

Best Picture

Should be:  Boyhood.  Really one of the most remarkable films in years.

Will be:  Boyhood or Birdman.  This was a lock for “Boyhood” even up to a few weeks ago but “Birdman” has such momentum right now that it could steal it.  I do really love that movie and it wouldn’t be the worse thing in the world, except “Boyhood” really is truly better.

Best Director

Should be:  Richard Linklater for Boyhood.  This is his moment and he will never get another chance.  And, frankly, he earned it.  Anyone who has the patience to make a cohesive film over 12 years deserves acknowledgement.

Will be:  Richard Linklater.  It could go to Iñárritu for “Birdman” but I’m thinking this one is close to locked up.

Lead Actress

Should be:  Julianne Moore in Still Alice.  Though I never saw “Two Days, One Night,” Moore’s performance is really the stand out here. It is solely responsible for lifting her film into something worth seeing.

Will be:  Julianne Moore. No question.

Lead Actor

Should be:  Michael Keaton for Birdman or Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything.  I genuinely cannot decide here.  Keaton gives the best performance of his career, without a doubt. It is raw and honest and incredibly vulnerable. He is playing himself.  Redmayne, on the other hand, is playing someone else so beautifully that he get’s lost in the character. His transformation is mesmerizing. Steve Carell gives his best performance ever as well and is stunning (he would deserve to win in most years) but just can’t compete against these two. Frankly, David Oyelowo should have been nominated instead of Benedict Cumberbatch.  Sorry, Cumberbitches, he’s good but his performance was not better than Oyelowo’s.

Will be:  Eddie Redmayne.   Keaton could possibly steal it but I doubt it.

Supporting Actress

Should be:  Emma Stone in Birdman.  This one will seem a surprise and, the truth is, I don’t feel strongly about this category this year.  Nobody really blew me away but Stone held her own in some intense scenes, so I give her my nod here. Not that it matters…

Will be:  Patricia Arquette in Boyhood.  Without a doubt.  One of the easiest calls of the night. My problem is that I have never liked her acting. Maybe I am unfairly prejudiced for some reason but she always seems stilted to me, like she’s reading dialogue. It bugs me. Sorry.

Supporting Actor

Should be:  JK Simmons in Whiplash.  Without a doubt. Far and away the best performance.  Nobody else in this category even touches this one.

Will be:  JK Simmons.  Without a doubt.  This one is absolutely THE easiest call of the night.

Adapted Screenplay

Should be:  Damien Chazelle for Whiplash.  An amazing, frenetic and beautifully scripted film.

Will be: Maybe Graham Moore for Imitation Game.  I’m really not sure.  There is little buzz and momentum in this category this year that I know of. So, it could be anyone’s game.  This is my best guess- give a nod here because the film will likely be shut out elsewhere.

Original Screenplay

Should be:  Wes Anderson for Grand Budapest Hotel.  This is a tough call because everything in this category is fantastic.  But Anderson deserves a win and this would be a great one to win it on.

Will be:  Wes Anderson or  Alejandro G. Iñárritu. I think this one is very very close.

Best Animated Feature

Should be:  I don’t care.  I didn’t see a single one. Though I would be kinda thrilled if it went to a non-American film like, “The Tale of the Princess Kaguya.”

Will be:  How to Train Your Dragon 2.  It’s big and Hollywoody and made lots of money.  It’s possible that “Big Hero 6” could steal it.  Who cares?

Best Foreign Language Film

Should be:  Ida.  Beautiful and disturbing. Every shot was worthy of being still photo. Lavish and stark at the same time.

Will be:  Leviathan.  This is a bit of a guess but this film seems to have the most momentum.  “Ida” could steal it but none of the others have any momentum at all.

Cinematography

Should be:  Birdman. As much as it pains me to not put “The Grand Budapest Hotel” here, the fact that this film was done to look like all one shot was brilliant.  Anderson’s film looks like his other films. It’s brilliant and completely, uniquely him but it looks like him. “Birdman” stands utterly on it’s own.

Will be:  Birdman.  No real question.  This is an easy call.

Best Documentary

I usually include this category but have only seen two of the films: “Citizenfour” and “Finding Vivian Maier” and I don’t feel like either was brilliant enough to make a call without seeing the other two.  That said, I do think “Citizenfour” is likely to win it; Hollywood just loves its message.

 

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