Politicana

That’s right, it is exactly 10 days since the last debate and, as I had promise in two previous posts, here is my prediction for November 4th:

OBAMA       364

McCain       174

Continue reading Obama Wins!…

I’m feeling a little bad about that last downer of a post… so for a nice antidote, click here.

I wish I could import some of the great photos from this moving 2 minute slide show that accompanies Obama’s speech yesterday in Richmond.

Wow– so much going on and so much to comment on.  It’s hard to identify the most disgusting comment a McCain surrogate has made to the media, but here’s my nomination for today.    I don’t know who this fucker is, but he claims the real outrage is not Palin’s $150K spending spree, but Obama taking a 767 jet to fly back to Hawaii to see his dying grandmother.   No, I am not making that up.  God, 11/4 can’t come soon enough.

[From TPM's "The Day in 100 Seconds".  It's at about 1:05]

The AP ran an article today by Liz Sidoti claiming that the presidential race has tightened to a dead heat, as evidenced by their new poll which showed Obama ahead by just 1 point (44% to 43%).  Sidoti went on to state that McCain has been gaining ground ever since the last debate, which she suggests he won.  She also states that his “Joe the Plumber” storyline has resonated with voters and is helping close the gap.

I was surprised by how much this story line existed outside of any narrative I was familiar with.   So, I decided to look at the latest polls myself.  When I last reported on the polls in my “Preemptive Post,” Obama had an average lead of 8.45% during the previous week of polling.  So, I ran the numbers for the 9 polls I found for the last 7 days and the average of those polls gave Obama a 7.77% lead.  The AP-GfK poll was the only one even close to a dead heat. In fact, 6 of the 9 polls had Obama leading by 8-14 points.

I was further reassured when I visited FiveThirtyEight and saw that Nate’s Super Tracker, “thinks that Obama is now no more than a half a point off his peak numbers.”  The fact that his .5% closely matches the .68%  difference I found between my two sets of polls, suggests that the race may be tightening (as I had thought it would) but not at an alarming rate.  If that rate of decline continues, Obama will lead by an average of 6 points on election day, which is again not far from my prediction of a 5 point lead.

In other words, don’t believe the spin; folks gotta sell papers.

… and the revolt of the bureaucrats. I’m starting to like this David Brin guy.

Specifically, in the case of Virginia, you can see America’s First Colony start to fracture in two — much as it did in 1861, when Appalachian settlers angrily refused to betray their country at the behest of aristocratic tidewater slave owners, choosing to secede instead and form West Virginia. Similarly today, you hear tales of local politicians declaring that Northern Virginia is something totally apart from the “real” parts of the state. One angry neocon called it “Communist country.”

I suspect there are interesting factors involved in the rebellion of Northern Virginia, that go beyond simply the economy, or a demographic shift toward more education, or even a lot of northern migrants. I surely doubt socialism of any inkling has a thing to do with the surge of Obama support in the counties surrounding the District of Columbia. Rather, I think this local phenomenon is due to something largely overlooked.

The swing against the GOP in Northern Virginia is all about the U.S. Civil Service. It is a mini-referendum by members of the professional class who we hired to run the business of America’s government — by far the top employer of that region. These people are turning to the Democrats, in droves.

Note that it did not start out this way. Polls showed repeatedly that (contrary to some expectations) federal employees are not notable more liberal or democratic-registered than Americans, at large. Indeed, many are deeply conservative by temperament. And remember, Northern Virginia includes a lot of military folk, as well, including the Pentagon and several huge Naval installations. Then why this dramatic swing of political passion, in a region that showed strong GOP streaks in the past?

I’ve tried to make this point repeatedly. The civil servants and members of the U.S. Officer Corps have endured eight years as the very worst victims of this administration. They’ve been stewing under the grip of thousands of political appointees, partisan hacks charged by President George W. Bush with a single, paramount mission — to bully, harass, divert and demoralize the men and women who actually keep the nation running. From the Justice Department to the intelligence services, to science agencies, to the military, those hatchet men seem to have had no other purpose than to prevent our public servants from doing the lawful jobs that we pay them to do.

Note the cleverness of this neocon stratagem. In most of American life, if workers suffer abuse, the right to complain and seek redress is pretty strong. Civil servants, too, are supposedly protected from direct political interference. But so long as the hacks refrained from anything too overt — (with the exception of stupidly firing those assistant U.S. Attorneys) — they could erect barricades of distraction and mal-assignment that would thwart agency workers from accomplishing anything, or solving any problems, causing many to resign in frustration. Moreover, civil servants and military officers are constrained — by both law and tradition — against speaking out against their political superiors.

Is there a comeuppance? Apparently, the military did stand up, courageously, a couple of years ago, in what is now quietly known as the Generals and Admirals Revolt – resulting in the ousting of Donald Rumsfeld as Defense Secretary and the arrival of the Gates-Mullen team, effectively peeling the hands of Bush and Cheney away from the tiller at Defense. An episode when our officer corps bravely kept their oaths once again, to protect us from enemies, both foreign and domestic. And they did it so discretely that most Americans haven’t a clue how much we owe them.

Alas, I’ve been disappointed that few other groups of civil servants have done likewise. Apparently, the FBI and CIA agents and others, who might have blown the whistle on Bush era crimes, proved too timid to stand up and help their country in its hour of desperate need. Instead, they appear to be leaving it up to the People. The ignorant, febrile, much-maligned People will have to fix this mess. Much as they did on 9/11, common citizen voters will work a miracle that the professionals could not. Or would not.

Still, here’s the point: I believe that it is the simmering resentment of the civil service caste that we are seeing erupt in Northern Virginia… and in patches around the country. When our first state joins in the blue rebellion, nobody in the GOP or in Red America should yelp in wounded surprise. They brought it on themselves.

And then there’s this coda:

Which brings us to the news that: “In 2001, the last year the Internal Revenue Service estimated the tax gap – the difference between what taxpayers owe and what they actually pay – the figure stood at $345 billion, or $290 billion after subtracting enforcement efforts and late payments.”

Yes, this is half of the recent bailout passage. But what I find stunning is that very little has been said about the fact that 2001 was the last year of figures on missing taxes owed! Think about it in light of my earlier contention that the greatest crime of the Bush Gang has been to divert, quell, bully and repress the ability of the entire US Civil Service to perform any function that might help the republic to operate in a healthy way.

Now you have the smoking gun.

When Libertarians meet the Bush regime … step back!!!

… or anywhere else you want to put it. But I found this map on Andrew Sullivan (linked from Poulos) that highlights John McCain’s current “best case scenario.”

Basically, he needs to win Pennsylvania. And Ohio and Florida and Nevada. But here’s the thing: he’s not going to win Pennsylvania.

Steady … steady.

Hey all you swing-staters,

If you need some info that you can send along to undecided friends who are troubled by this ACORN nonsense (it should be called A-PORN the way the Republicans are creaming all over it), check out georgia10’s excellent post on the Daily Kos today (click on the hyperlink and scroll down). 

Especially pass along this link to FactCheck.org: http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/acorn_accusations.html

Or this video (available on YouTube under the title “CNN Fact Checks Right Wing Claims Against Acorn“):

You can judge how “fair and balanced” Fox News is for yourself…..

So, the last debate is over and, as I’m sure you call know, most viewers have considered Obama the decisive winner of all three debates.  According to the CNN/ORC poll, it breaks down like this: Continue reading A Preemptive Post…

If you haven’t done so yet, please take this small poll.