Final Outcome « Politicana

Final Outcome

Electoral College Predictions

Safe Obama states: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, Delaware, Maryland, The District of Columbia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii.

Safe McCain states: South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, South Dakota, and Alaska.

My prediction: Obama 353 McCain 185

Current Total: Obama 365 McCain 173

State	ECVs	Obama	McCain	State	ECVs	Obama	McCain
Pennsylvania	21	X		Missouri	11		X
Colorado	9	X		Indiana	11	X
Virginia	13	X		Arizona	10		X
Nevada	5	X		Georgia	15		X
Ohio	20	X		Montana	3		X
Florida	27	X		North Dakota	3		X
North Carolina	15	X		W. Virginia	5		X

+1 Nebraska EV from Omaha!

Senate Predictions

Prediction: 7-9 gains, 0 losses Current pick up: 7, 1 pending

Color represents outcome

Definite pick ups:

State	Incumbent	Challenger
1-Virginia	Jim Gilmore	Mark Warner
2-New Mexico	Steve Pearce	Tom Udall
3-New Hampshire	John Sununu	Jeanne Shaheen
4-Colorado	Bob Schaffer	Mark Udall
5-Alaska	Ted Stevens	Mike Begich

Probable pick ups:

State	Incumbent	Challenger
6-Oregon	Gordon Smith	Jeff Merkley
7-N Carolina	Elizabeth Dole	Kay Hagan

If the night is going well, we will pick up one or both of these:

State

Incumbent

Challenger

8-Minnesota

(recount)

Norm Coleman

Al Franken

9-Georgia

Saxby Chambliss

Jim Martin

If we are having a really good night, we could also get one of these:

State	Incumbent	Challenger
10-Kentucky	Mitch McConnell	Bruce Lunsford
11-Mississippi	Roger Wicker	Ronnie Musgrove

If it’s a run away crazy blow-out night, we may even get one of these:

State	Incumbent	Challenger
12-Maine	Susan Collins	Tom Allen
13-Texas	John Cornyn	Rick Noriega
14-Oklahoma	James Inhofe	Andrew Rice
15-Nebraska	Gov. Mike Johanns	Scott Kleeb

House Predictions Current Status: 234 Democrats, 199 Republicans

Prediction: pick up of 23-28

Total pick up: 23 Now: 257 Democrats, 176 Republicans

This chart is listed from most likely Republican seat to switch (NY-13) all the way to most likely Democrat seat to switch (FL-16). The two seats on the margin between red & blue (MN-02 & LA-06) are the least likely seats to switch of all the seats that I think have any chance of switching at all (make sense?):

Dist.	Incumbent	Challenger	W/L
NY-13	????	Mike McMahon	WON
IL-11	Marty Ozinga	Debbie Halvorson	WON
NY-25	Dale Sweetland or David Gay	Dan Maffei	WON
AK-AL	Don Young	Ethan Berkowitz	LOST
FL-24	Tom Feeney	Suzanne Kosmas	WON
MI-09	Joe Knollenberg	Gary Peters	WON
ID-01	Bill Sali	Walt Minnick	WON
VA-05	Virgil Goode	Tom Perriello	WON
OH-15	Steve Stivers	Mary Jo Kilroy	WON
CA-04	Tom McClintock	Lt. Col. Charlie Brown	LOST
LA-04	John Flemming	Paul Carmouche	LOST
NM-01	Darren White	Martin Heinrich	WON
CO-4	Marilyn Musgrave	Betsy Markey	WON
OH-16	Kirk Schuring	John Boccieri	WON
PA-03	Phil English	Kathy Dahlkemper	WON
NJ-07	Leonard Lance	Linda Stender	LOST
NJ-03	Chris Myers	John Adler	WON
NY-29	John R. “Randy” Kuhl	Eric Massa	WON
VA-11	Keith Firnian	Gerald Connolly	WON
MI-07	Tim Walberg	Mark Schauer	WON
KY-02	Brett Guthrie	David Boswell	LOST
NC-08	Robin Hayes	Larry Kissell	WON
AZ-01	Ken Bennett	Ann Kirkpatrick	WON
MD-01	Andy Harris	Frank Kratovil	WON
MN-06	Michelle Bachmann	Elwyn Tinklenberg	LOST
NM-02	Ed Tinsley	Harry Teague	WON
NV-03	Jon Porter	Dina Titus	WON
VA-02	Thelma Drake	Glenn Nye	WON
FL-08	Ric Keller	Alan Grayson	WON
WA-08	Dave Reichert	Darcy Burner	LOST
AL-02	Jay Love	Bobby Bright	WON
NY-26	Chris Lee	Alice Kryzan	LOST
OH-1	Steve Chabot	Steve Driehaus	WON
MO-9	Blaine Luetkemeyer	Judy Baker	LOST
CT-04	Chris Shays	Jim Himes	WON
WY-AL	Cynthia Lummis	Gary Trauner	LOST
OH-2	Jean Schmidt	Dr. Victoria Wulsin	LOST
FL-21	Mario Diaz-Balart	Joe Garcia	LOST
FL-25	Lincoln Diaz-Balart	Joe Garcia	LOST
IL-10	Mark Kirk	Dan Seals	LOST
MN-03	Erik Paulsen	Ashwin Madia	LOST
IN-03	? Souder	? Montagana	LOST
FL-18	Ileana Ros-Lehtinen	Annette Tadeo	LOST
IA-04	Tom Latham	Becky Greenwald	LOST
MN-02	John Kline	Steve Sarvi	LOST
LA-06	Don Cazayoux	Bill Cassidy	LOST
NH-01	Carol Shea-Porter	Jeb Bradley	WON
TX-23	Ciro Rodriquez	Lyle Larson	WON
NY-19	John Hall	Andrew Saul	WON
PA-11	Paul Kanjorksi	Lou Barletta	WON
TX-22	Nick Lampson	Pete Olson	LOST
FL-16	Tim Mahoney	Tom Rooney	LOST

The 2008 11 Governor Races Predictions:

Probable Pick up: Missouri

Possible losses (leaning our way barely): North Carolina, Washington (i)

Outcome:

1 pick up: Missouri

No losses

California Propositions Predictions

The props highlighted in blue are the ones where my prediction matched the outcome.

Now, if only I was as good at getting people to do what I want as I am at predicting what they will do. Sadly, my batting average on the props was just 50%. I think that means the average Californian is only half as smart as I am.

Proposition	I voted	Prediction	Results
1A- Train to Southern CAL	NO	Pass?	Pass
2- Bigger bird cages	YES	Pass	Pass
3- Hospital bond	NO	Pass	Pass
4- Parental notification	NO	Fail??	Fail
5- Drug treatment for teens	YES	Fail	Fail
6- Tough on gangs/housing	NO	Pass	Fail
7- Alternative energy	NO	Fail	Fail
8- Ban gay marriage	NO	Pass??	Pass
9- Give victims power over perpetrators	NO	Pass	Pass
10- Natural gas	NO	Pass	Fail
11- Redistricting	NO	Pass?	Pass
12- Help veterans	YES	Pass	Pass