You can judge how “fair and balanced” Fox News is for yourself…..

1.   Voting is not based on rational self-interest and policy preferences.  Voting is largely based on a gut level feeling of conection to a candidate.  On a subconscious level, Americans have an Archetype image of the word “President” and unfortunately for Obama, this image is white.  Therefore, even voters who would normally classify themselves as “non-racist” still have a subconscious bias against Obama.

2.  A good portion (15-20%) of the democratic base harbors some degree of “overt racism” and though they will claim other reasons for not voting for Obama, this is the “true” reason.  These blue-collar, rural, union workers who are otherwise reliable voters will either stay at home or become “McCain-Democrats”.

3.  A good portionof the Hillary primary voters feel that “sexism” is what cost her the nomination.  Though I believe there is no basis in fact for this notion, John McCain picked Sarah Palin to appeal to this group of alienated white women.  Palin gives many of these women a chance to vote against Obama.

4.  Young voters who are predicted to vote for Obama will only turn out if he is able to maintain his ability to inspire them and make them think he will fundamentally change things.  Some of Obama’s”walk-on-water” status has faded as this election cycle has degraded into traditional poltics which alienates the young, ideallist voters.

5.  Palin unified the evangelical base who would have otherwise had only tepid support for McCain.  This is the other reason McCain chose her.  This “base turnout” might be enough to sway critical swing states like Ohio and Virgina.

6.  The War in Iraq is perceived to be going well and the “get out now” scream of the Democratic left will be successfully spun as “cut-and-run”.  The current “success” of the war in Iraq will nullify this issue for Obama and if he trys to push it, will alienate critical “independent voters” who are middle-of-the-road on this isue.

7.  The empire in decline:  history has showed that when civilization have passed there peak of power and are in decline (as I would argue that the U.S. is now in decline), the citizens translate the insecurity due to this loss of status into a conservative impulse to restore the good old days.  This does not bode well for Obama who presents himself as the “new kind of politics”.