Politicana

Hey all you swing-staters,

If you need some info that you can send along to undecided friends who are troubled by this ACORN nonsense (it should be called A-PORN the way the Republicans are creaming all over it), check out georgia10’s excellent post on the Daily Kos today (click on the hyperlink and scroll down). 

Especially pass along this link to FactCheck.org: http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/acorn_accusations.html

Or this video (available on YouTube under the title “CNN Fact Checks Right Wing Claims Against Acorn“):

So, the last debate is over and, as I’m sure you call know, most viewers have considered Obama the decisive winner of all three debates.  According to the CNN/ORC poll, it breaks down like this: Continue reading A Preemptive Post…

If you haven’t done so yet, please take this small poll.

Check out this article, “A Conservative for Obama,” by former National Review publisher and friend of Bill Buckley, Wick Allison.  Here is a sample”

Nobody can read Obama’s books (which, it is worth noting, he wrote himself) or listen to him speak without realizing that this is a thoughtful, pragmatic, and prudent man. It gives me comfort just to think that after eight years of George W. Bush we will have a president who has actually read the Federalist Papers.

Also, be sure to check out readers’ comments.  If this does not give you a sense of how much trouble Camp McCalin is in (and the whole GOP in general), I don’t know what will.

In their desperation to win the election, McCalin has now turned like dogs to their own vomit, not only attacking Obama themselves but also egging on their most rabid supporters to do the same.

In an earlier post, I addressed concerns that racism might effect the outcome of this election.  I am now more convinced than ever that it won’t.  The racists don’t need to pretend to vote for Obama, they have plenty of people giving voice to their hatred (repressed or otherwise).  Check out this video that I just watched on Kagro X’s Kos diary:

I predict this thing is going to explode in the national media over the next few days.  McCain and Palin will have to scramble to distance themselves from this type of supporter and the campaign will take aggressive steps to shut them up at rallies.  Meanwhile, the average American will react VERY negatively to the story and McCain’s numbers will drop further.   I think this will innoculate Obama from the Ayers attack and, on some level, limit Team McCalin from using similar advertising in the future.

However, if this vitriol can’t be contained, things could get really ugly.  These hatemongers aren’t used to losing (most of them are young enough to have never lost a presidential election– they believe it is their right).  I am not worried we will lose the election but I am beginning to worry about what might happen after we win.  Apparently, McCain is willing to lose a life (Obama’s) in order to win an election.

“Hey Sarah Palin do you tell them in Wasilla that 4,000 year ago we roamed the planet with Godzilla?”

I will keep this post short because I don’t think there is much to say.  As I am sure you all know by now, most viewers in the CNN and CBS insta-polls again thought that Obama won the debate.  In the last two debates, these polls correctly predicted what other polling would find several days after each debate, so I consider them to be pretty accurate.  That said, the numbers are such:

CBS

Who won?  Obama 39%, McCain 27%, Tie 35%

Strong on economy?  Obama 68%, McCain 49%

CNN

Who won?  Obama 54%, McCain 30%

Who have a favorable opinion of?  Obama 64%, McCain 51%

Who is the stronger leader?  Obama 54%, McCain 43%

Who is more likeable?  Obama 65%, McCain 28%

In other words, a solid win across the board for Obama.  The real question is, why?

Honestly, I watched the debate and I did not think he did that much better than McCain did on answering questions, certainly not 14 points better.  In fact, I would call it a draw.  Yet, as I was watching the ticker at the bottom of the screen on CNN and the instant feedback from undecided voters, it was clear to me they thought Obama was leading.  He just generally registered a level or two more positively on most answers.  His answers frequently got very high responses and McCain’s seldom did; when McCain went negative, his numbers dropped every time but Obama’s didn’t always drop.  Even on answers where I thought McCain answered better, Obama often scored highter.  Why? 

My best guess would be just that voters have decided they like Obama more.  On a personal level, he seems more friendly, engaging and concerned about them.  So, they give him more leeway in his answers because they expect to like them.  If this is true, McCain has an impossible task ahead of him.  How does he drag down Obama’s likeability without destroying his own? 

I suspect he will continue to go negative this week but without much effect. My guess is that Obama’s numbers will, at worst, stall until the next debate but are more likely to continue climbing modestly.  He will then handily win the last debate and, barring an extremely unlikely event, the race will be effectively over.

In fact, I am so confident of that, I have decided to stop phone banking for Obama and start phone banking for a local Board of Supervisors race instead.

We are exactly 30 days out from the election and I feel the need to respond to a growing concern I hear from many Democrats.  It seems that some of you deeply fear we are going to lose this election because of voters’ hidden racism.  Continue reading On Race, Racism & the Wilder Effect…

I’m not one to attribute every change in the polls to man-made causes, so I am going to assume that god had something to do with this new round of polling: Continue reading Attitudes about Palin setting in, hardening…