I’ve got some for you right here.  From a myDD diarist, a list of historical points  you might be hearing form the  talking heads Election Night when it becomes clear Obama has won (though i thought Carter just won over 50% of the Popular Vote– can anyone help me with that?):

Assuming Obama wins, the networks will offer you some facts about him as president-elect right after they declare him the winner.  Here are some they may include:
*America’s first African-American/biracial president (duh)
*First African-American/biracial person to lead a majority white nation
*First Democrat to win 50% of the popular vote since 1964 (LBJ)
*First senator elected president since 1960 (JFK)
*First Northern Democrat to be president since 1960
*First Midwestern president since Gerald Ford (MI)
*First Midwestern president elected since 1948 (Truman-MO)
*Voter turnout is likely to be the highest in over 40 years–young, new and black voters will be key.
*4th youngest president (47; after Bill Clinton at 46, John F. Kennedy at 43, and Teddy Roosevelt at 42)
*First Democrat to win NC since 1976, and/or IN, ND, and/or VA since 1964.

Sorry non-Californians, but this is about local issue Proposition 8.  Of course, it should be of interest to everyone that reads this blog (PSA:  to donate or volunteer, go to NoOnProp8.com).

As you know, the polls have swung back and forth on this one.  During the summer, polls showed a majority of Californians supported gay marriage, then after a nasty Yes on 8 ad campaign, other polls show us a bit behind.  I’m anxiously awaiting the gold standard Field Poll’s last poll which is supposed to come out this week.  Looking at their website, I learned that when it comes to CA propositions, their final poll has sucessfully predicted the outcome 75/80 times in the last 12 years. 

Which 5 did they get wrong?

Proposition                                         FINAL POLL (y/n/und)       Actual result (y/n)

 2006-  Parental Abortion Notification              46/43/11                                    46/54

2004- Tort Limits                                              32/37/31                                    59/41

2004- Open Primaries                                        40/38/22                                   46/54

2000- School Bonds Threshold                          49/39/12                                   49/51

1996- Attorney Fee Limits                                 45/40/15                                    49/51

I’d say the only really surprising miss is the School bonds one.  The things these initiatives seem to have in common is not subject matter, but high undecideds, a close y/n spread, or both. 

So how did Prop 8 do in the first 2 Field polls this year?

July (old prop. wording)                                 42/51/7

Sept (newer wording “limit on marriage”)       35/55/7

So, obviously there are not a lot of undecideds when it comes to this issue (as opposed to tort limits).  I strongly expect the y/n division in this week’s poll to be much closer in light of the recent ad campaign and other polls which all show a tight race.  Damn interfering Mormons.

How successful has Field been in other “social” propositions, which are said to be hard to poll?

2000- Definition of Marriage                    53/40/7                                       61/39

2006- Parental Notification                    46/43/11                                       46/54

2006- Punishing Sex Offenders              76/11/13                                       71/29

2005- Parental Notification                     41/49/10                                     47/53

2003- Racial Privacy Initiative                35/49/16                                        36/64

1998-  Bilingual Ed.                                61/33/6                                           61/39

1996  Medical Marijuana                         59/35/6                                           56/44

1996  Anti-Affirmative Action                 46/41/13                                       55/45

Some of the above may or may not be too applicable to this year’s proposition.  Like prop 8, undecideds are mostly low. It seems the liberal/libertarian side of each measure scoops up more undecideds on some issues, and less on others (including, ominously (!) the anti-gay marriage initiative of 2000)  Also, except for 2006 parental notification, none were particularly close in the last poll, making their successful track record on social issues pretty easy. 

I predict their new poll will be very close– with one side up 1-3 points and with only 5-8% undecided.  I have to confess, when I satarted this post, I was hoping I would find trend x , which would reassure me of victory as long as i saw data y in this week’s final Field poll.  Instead, I’ve convinced myself there is no way to know.  Meaning, on 11/4 I’ll need some  Xanax to go along with my Obama champagne (kidding!– bad combo).  If someone sees something that would put my mind at ease, please let me know!  For example–  I’m trying to convince myself we will get more of the undecideds on election day ala 2006 Parental Notification, but it seems more likely that those “undecideds” are Yes votes that are shy about admitting this to pollsters, knowing it’s not the PC answer.  Drat!  [Side note:  Parental Notification this year is again ahead:  49/41/10  will history repeat itself and give the Field Poll their 6th miss?]  

Don’t forget to donate or sign up for volunteering (phone banking, holding up signs at intersections, data entry, letters to the editor) at www.NoOnProp8.com.

I’m feeling a little bad about that last downer of a post… so for a nice antidote, click here.

I wish I could import some of the great photos from this moving 2 minute slide show that accompanies Obama’s speech yesterday in Richmond.

Wow– so much going on and so much to comment on.  It’s hard to identify the most disgusting comment a McCain surrogate has made to the media, but here’s my nomination for today.    I don’t know who this fucker is, but he claims the real outrage is not Palin’s $150K spending spree, but Obama taking a 767 jet to fly back to Hawaii to see his dying grandmother.   No, I am not making that up.  God, 11/4 can’t come soon enough.

[From TPM's "The Day in 100 Seconds".  It's at about 1:05]

[Troy posting] Check out this cool video of CBS news coverage of election night 1980. I got it from sgilman on kos tonight. As he said,

Compare the analysis that starts about 1 min in with today. Just replace Carter with McCain, Obama with Regan and the economy with the hostages.

I guess to finish that analogy out, we should expect to see the Dow climb back over 11,000 on Inaugaration day as Obama is beeing sworn in. Maybe they’ll do a split screen.

I’ll just add that the 1980 election room is quite a different animal in terms of graphic design and newsroom pizazz. No John King iPhone mapping, but you will likely get a kick out of seeing a young Stahl, Rather and Schieffer (and an old Cronkite). Oh– and I finally have video proof of what I’ve been saying forever– that in my childhood, the election maps had *Dems* red and the *GOP* as blue. Vindicated!:

I just wanted to share this info from DeanDemocrat on kos, in case it falls off the recommended list before the end of the day.  I remember him doing a series of really superb posts before the 2004 debates about what to look for, and they were very interesting (so much more so than 99% of diaries).   Before you debate party this Friday, you will really want to take a look at these clips of previous McCain debate performances and what to look for…

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/23/0592/84768/1013/607155

After the jump, some sample analysis:

The thing that really stands out about this video is first off the look of nervous panic when Ron Paul begins to direct a question at John McCain. He tries to hide it with a grin and an eyebrow raise. But it’s clear from his body language that he is uncomfortable and nervous. The reason for that panic is that McCain doesn’t know anything. You heard him say he wishes interest rates were zero. That would of course mean every investment ever made and every bank account opened would never acquire any additional value. The guy just doesn’t know.

There is a wide array of issues that McCain is not very well read on and Obama should use this at every chance he gets. The key to taking advantage of McCain’s ignorance is having the facts at your disposal and getting specific. Very specific. Especially any time you’re asking a direct question of Senator McCain. No closed ended questions designed to get a yes or no. He likes those questions because they don’t require him to think or explain himself. He can just say yes or no and call it straight talk.

In this video McCain was not expecting Paul to ask about a specific agency or group and because McCain had absolutely no idea what the Presidents working group on financial markets is or what it does he was unable to give a proper answer. In fact, at no point in his incoherent ramblings did he say anything which even closely resembled a rational thought. Everyone here is now dumber for having listened to it.

If anyone has more economics background than I (Econ 101 in 1989), I’d love to hear your thoughts about today’s Treasury Dept. bailout plan. I’ve read Krugman, but am still a bit fuzzy on the details. What does seem clear is that a fight is brewing as the administration fights for a blank check (and they really — they *do* deserve free reign of things, given how responsibly they have run things so far in 7.5 years) and the Dems who are going to fight for more accountability and the inclusion of an economic stimulus package for citizens (not just corporations). I’ve heard Obama already come out this morning in support of a plan that does more than what Treasury has so far proposed. According to gsadamb on dKos,

Obama’s speech included six specific stipulations for any bailout that happens.

1.) No blank check: Americans are going to be on the hook for almost $1,000,000,000,000. It’s taxation without representation to just write blank checks without being accountable to taxpayers.

2.) Taxpayer money should not be paid to reward CEOs. Period.

3.) Taxpayers are incurring a great amount of cost and risk. The investments should be protected, and they should be able to eventually recoup the losses.

4.) THERE MUST BE A PLAN TO HELP HOMEOWNERS STAY IN THEIR HOME.

5.) Obama pointed out that this is a global crisis, and that other nations need to step in to help secure the financial market.

6.) REGULATE. REGULATE. REGULATE.

Obama’s official statement is here.

I think Obama will welcome the opportunity to demonstrate his differences from the current president, casting himself in the role of protecting ordinary Americans rather than CEOs. What I really wonder, is will McCain also jump at the chance to break from Bush in a high-profile way and likewise not endorse the current Treasury Dept. proposal? I suspect he will. It will give him some anti-”more of the same” ammo prior to the debates. We’ll know soon enough.

It looks like it’s not just the lefty blogs that are reporting the decline of the Palin <whatever>.  SFgate is reporting that she is energizing the base, but failing to woo any independents to speak of.  She is just rehashing that convention speech (and the bridge lie), while being ensconced away from the press for the most part, cancelling appearances while preparing for the VP debate.

“Is she a one-hit wonder? Unless she does something radically different from what she’s currently doing, yes,” Sacramento State political communications professor Barbara O’Connor said this week. She said that in the 23 days since Palin was named the GOP vice presidential choice, her script has been a limited and increasingly predictable one. “It’s fine to say she needed some time to get her footing … but we’re well past that.”

And some think the SNL skit is doing her no favors as it cements her lightweightedness in peoples minds.

Which leads me to my idea.  I think the Tina Fey line “I Can See Russia From My House!!” should be a phrase that follows Palin around.  Instead of flip-flops or tire-pressure gagues, people should be holding up signs with this phrase whereever she goes– starting chants, you name it.  Mock the hell out of her ridiculous claim to foreign policy experience.  Is there anyone who can help me move this plan into action?

And speaking of seeing things from your house, you gotta love this observation by Dan Savage:

And if I lean out my window I can see a Washington State Liquor Store—gee, I guess that qualifies me to sit on the Washington State Liquor Control Board and make up all sorts new liquor regulations for Washington state! I henceforth decree that all Jägermeister shots served in Washington must be filtered through the dirty jock straps of high-school wrestlers! Anybody that gets to the front of the beer line at Safeco Field and doesn’t know what beer they want shall henceforth be banned from the ballpark along with lip-lockin’ lesbians and douchebags in “Yankees Suck!” t-shirts! No more fences around beer gardens at public festivals! Jello shots must be made with chemical castration drugs! That smokin’ hot bartender at that one bar must work shirtless!

According to the NYTimes, viewership of Night 1 of the Dem’s Convention was up– from 18 million in ‘04 to about 24 million in ‘08.  Good news–  the more people that saw Michelle Obama and her children, the better imho.  Listening to her speech, watching her bio video about her working class roots, and seeing her family members, i had a “good, god, could this country really be so dumb as to NOT elect this family over McCain” moment– I’m sure I’ll have many many more.  Especially after McC picks Romney.

Some interesting numbers:

The broadcast networks NBC, ABC and CBS attracted an audience of 12 million, with NBC leading the pack with 4.7 million viewers. (”Deal or No Deal,” at 8 p.m. on NBC, averaged 11 million viewers.) In another sign of the increasing popularity of cable channels for news coverage, CNN attracted more viewers — 4.2 million — than ABC or CBS for the hour. ABC drew 4.17 million and CBS averaged 3.46 million at the same hour.

On cable news, the Fox News Channel had an average of 2.92 million viewers for the hour, while MSNBC averaged 2.1 million. CNN, usually the second place cable network behind Fox News, was also top-rated during the Democratic convention in 2004.

The combined audience was a few million shy of NBC’s prime time average during the Olympics this month.

Just a little something to help ease the stress of waiting for the VP pick and watching McCain creep up in the polls: 

[from a kos diary]:

Full exchange here.