Politicana

what will they say about this election and why John McCain lost? 

Well, here is my answer (entirely unchanged from when I wrote it on October 19th):

I think the temptation over the immediate future will be to say it was the result of the “October Surprise” economic collapse.  However, with time, I believe this election cycle will be described as the perfect political storm.   In large part, I think this is true; the only way we could have gotten the massive, unequivocal wins we got (and elected our first black president) at this point in history is through a perfect storm of events.  WIth that in mind, here, in my opinion, are our top 10 (in chronological order):

1- The last 8 years and everything they represent; the scandals and hypocrisies summed up by Abramoff, Plame, the firing of the attnys, Mark Foley, Larry Craig, Guantanamo, the imperial presidency, and on and on and on.

2- The Iraq War with its cost in lives, money and our international standing.

3- The netroots and how galvanized and organized they were after the 2004 loss (I’ll say more about them below).

4- The collapse of the housing bubble, which I differeniate from the banking collapse because, though they are obviously related, they both had a separate effect.

5- The rise of a young, handsome, eloquent and different presidential candidate in Barack Obama, who happened to be a community organizer and brought an entirely different way of doing things to this campaign.  His approach to politics was so far outside the norm for party insiders that neither of them (Hillary or McCain) who how to defend against it.  From his fundraising, to his fifty-state strategy, he dominated this entire race.

6- The fact that Hillary Clinton also chose this time to run, generating massive buzz for the Democratic ticket and cementing the idea that we are the party of change.

7- The long drawn out Democratic primary turned out to be critical.  Not only did it strengthen and prepare Obama for the Fall but, more importantly, it forced him to develop a ground game in almost every state, which was something he used to his fantastic advantage later.  And, most importanly, it aired all his dirty laundry before it could do any real damage. 

8- The Republicans were stuck with a candidate that NONE of them were very excited about.

9- In full panic mode, McCain chose Sarah Palin.  A decision that turned out to be by far his worst one but I will also say more about that later. 

10- The bank meltdown.  By this point, this crisis was really just the last nail in McCain’s coffin.  It was probably only the difference between a solid win and a blow out.

Of all of these events, I believe that, if there is one single thing to blame for McCain’s loss, it is his VP choice, not the economic crisis.  Had he chosen Pawlenty, he would have grudgingly gotten evangelicals behind him.  It is true, the base would not have been very excited and he may well have lost anyway.  However, he would have been able to continue doing what had worked all July– hammer Obama again and again on his lack of experience and celebrity status.  This might have continued to chip away at Obama’s lead.  If they had entered the debates with Obama slightly behind, he might have felt pressured and overreached during the debates.  Pawlenty would likely have done well against Biden in their debate.  Even the economic crisis might have been spun their direction if Pawlenty could show his economic experience as governor.  McCain still might not have won but this was the single decision that guaranteed he would not win.

Finally, a note about the netroots.  I cannot say enough about how important they have been since 2004.  I really believe that a small number of dedicated liberals gave a voice to the rest of us who have felt so disenfranchised for so long.  In a sense, the netroots served the purpose for us that church served for the right wing, it brought us together and gave us a sense of strength in numbers.  It taught us how to collectively wield the power we have had all along.  We won in 2006 and again this year because of the netroots.  I don’t want to overstate this but I really believe this is a real force with a real impact.  We would not have Howard Dean and we would not have Barack Obama without groups like the DailyKos.