Comments on: Tight race update http://petersmall.wordpress.com/2008/11/02/tight-race-update/ Tue, 03 Mar 2009 10:31:10 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Troy http://petersmall.wordpress.com/2008/11/02/tight-race-update/#comment-236 Troy Tue, 04 Nov 2008 01:00:14 +0000 http://petersmall.wordpress.com/?p=522#comment-236 Here's my prediction for 4pm tomorrwo, when the first polls close on these states: Indiana- stays too close to call for an hour... Georgia- ditto Virginia- is called in 15 min. for Obama Kentucky- is called for McC in 1-5 min. Which is all great news. If they are able to call IN for Obama in the first hr., before other polls close, will the networks "declare" it? Here’s my prediction for 4pm tomorrwo, when the first polls close on these states:
Indiana- stays too close to call for an hour…
Georgia- ditto
Virginia- is called in 15 min. for Obama
Kentucky- is called for McC in 1-5 min.

Which is all great news. If they are able to call IN for Obama in the first hr., before other polls close, will the networks “declare” it?

]]> By: Troy http://petersmall.wordpress.com/2008/11/02/tight-race-update/#comment-235 Troy Tue, 04 Nov 2008 00:57:16 +0000 http://petersmall.wordpress.com/?p=522#comment-235 God, am I the only one who feels it's like Christmas Eve? How the hell am I supposed to fall asleep tonite? Ambien? Russ-- that's a good start for republicans. Good luck convincing them to go that way (especially #3). God, am I the only one who feels it’s like Christmas Eve? How the hell am I supposed to fall asleep tonite? Ambien?

Russ– that’s a good start for republicans. Good luck convincing them to go that way (especially #3).

]]> By: Russ http://petersmall.wordpress.com/2008/11/02/tight-race-update/#comment-234 Russ Mon, 03 Nov 2008 22:03:57 +0000 http://petersmall.wordpress.com/?p=522#comment-234 An interesting quote that I found on WWW.MSNBC.COM showing which groups Obama and McCain are winning. "Looking inside the numbers, Obama leads McCain among African Americans (90 percent to 3 percent), Latinos (68 to 27), 18- to 34-year-olds (59 to 38), independents (48 to 38), blue-collar voters (51 to 44), suburban voters (49 to 44) and Catholics (49 to 46). McCain, meanwhile, has the advantage among evangelicals (78 percent to 19 percent), those 65 years old and older (53 to 40), white men (54 to 42) and white women (48 to 47)." Although the Black, Latino and youth votes are not that unexpected, I think that the blue collar, suburban, Catholic vote and the near tie among white women for Obama are noteworthy. My final impression is that Democrats are building an electoral base consisting of young voters, African Americans, and Latinos (the fastest growing demographic in the US) on top of our historical urban and liberal base. The republican coalition is based on old people (a group which by definition will not form a LASTING group of voters), and white evangelicals (a shrinking population as well). These numbers make me think that the Republican's need a major realignment to win nationally in the future. They will need to: 1. Reach out to Latinos. Immigrant bashing is not a wining strategy. 2. Reach out to Catholics: Need to start addressing social justice issues, not just evangelical family values. 3. Reach out to middle class suburban voters: Economic policies must be geared towards growth of the middle class. Trickle down will no longer sell. 4. Reach out to youth. Not sure how they can reach this group ....Any particular concerns that are specific to the young? Economic insecurity related to outsourcing of jobs? An interesting quote that I found on http://WWW.MSNBC.COM showing which groups Obama and McCain are winning.

“Looking inside the numbers, Obama leads McCain among African Americans (90 percent to 3 percent), Latinos (68 to 27), 18- to 34-year-olds (59 to 38), independents (48 to 38), blue-collar voters (51 to 44), suburban voters (49 to 44) and Catholics (49 to 46).

McCain, meanwhile, has the advantage among evangelicals (78 percent to 19 percent), those 65 years old and older (53 to 40), white men (54 to 42) and white women (48 to 47).”

Although the Black, Latino and youth votes are not that unexpected, I think that the blue collar, suburban, Catholic vote and the near tie among white women for Obama are noteworthy. My final impression is that Democrats are building an electoral base consisting of young voters, African Americans, and Latinos (the fastest growing demographic in the US) on top of our historical urban and liberal base.

The republican coalition is based on old people (a group which by definition will not form a LASTING group of voters), and white evangelicals (a shrinking population as well).

These numbers make me think that the Republican’s need a major realignment to win nationally in the future.
They will need to:
1. Reach out to Latinos. Immigrant bashing is not a wining strategy.
2. Reach out to Catholics: Need to start addressing social justice issues, not just evangelical family values.
3. Reach out to middle class suburban voters: Economic policies must be geared towards growth of the middle class. Trickle down will no longer sell.
4. Reach out to youth. Not sure how they can reach this group ….Any particular concerns that are specific to the young? Economic insecurity related to outsourcing of jobs?

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