Tight race update
November 2, 2008 at 8:02 pm | In Uncategorized | 3 CommentsAccording to Nate Silvers at FiveThirtyEight, there has been some tightening in the national polls after all, bringing Obama’s lead to about 5.4% on average. As this matches almost perfectly my prediction on October 16th that “Obama’s lead will drop to about 5 points just before election day,” I would love to agree with him.
However, I haven’t really seen the same tightening. When I look at the last 7 days of polling (again 9 polls, although 4 of them done by CBS for some reason), I find Barack’s average lead to be 8.55, which is exactly in range with the last averages I did. In fact, the average of those 3 sets of averages is 8.63. So, the polls I look at find no change in Obama’s lead at all.
For the record, my polls have included: CBS, Pew, CNN/Opinion Research, FOX/Opinion Dynamics, NY Times, ARG, Diageo/Hotline, NBC/Wallstreet Journal, USA Today/Gallup, and many others. In other words, all the big name polls, I believe.
So, why the difference? I have no idea but I have to concede that I have nothing of the tracking capacity or head for stats that Nate does. So, perhaps he has access to more studies than I do or he looks at variables I don’t. Either way, I don’t think it’s worth debating because the national poll numbers aren’t that important. State-by-state polling is much more important at this stage in the race and these polls are clearly showing there is now tightening in some state races.
Taking this tightening into account has caused me to scale back my prediction for Obama’s margin of victory from 364/174 to 353/185. I shifted Missouri to the McCain column. I think Indiana is probably out of reach but Arizona is now in the Indiana range. Florida and North Carolina are also now less certain but I still include them in the Obama column because I think voter excitement and early voting are on his side.
So, my amended prediction for Tuesday:
Obama 353
McCain 185
For my full predictions, check out my “Final Predictions” tab at the top of the page.
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Peter
Troy
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An interesting quote that I found on http://WWW.MSNBC.COM showing which groups Obama and McCain are winning.
“Looking inside the numbers, Obama leads McCain among African Americans (90 percent to 3 percent), Latinos (68 to 27), 18- to 34-year-olds (59 to 38), independents (48 to 38), blue-collar voters (51 to 44), suburban voters (49 to 44) and Catholics (49 to 46).
McCain, meanwhile, has the advantage among evangelicals (78 percent to 19 percent), those 65 years old and older (53 to 40), white men (54 to 42) and white women (48 to 47).”
Although the Black, Latino and youth votes are not that unexpected, I think that the blue collar, suburban, Catholic vote and the near tie among white women for Obama are noteworthy. My final impression is that Democrats are building an electoral base consisting of young voters, African Americans, and Latinos (the fastest growing demographic in the US) on top of our historical urban and liberal base.
The republican coalition is based on old people (a group which by definition will not form a LASTING group of voters), and white evangelicals (a shrinking population as well).
These numbers make me think that the Republican’s need a major realignment to win nationally in the future.
They will need to:
1. Reach out to Latinos. Immigrant bashing is not a wining strategy.
2. Reach out to Catholics: Need to start addressing social justice issues, not just evangelical family values.
3. Reach out to middle class suburban voters: Economic policies must be geared towards growth of the middle class. Trickle down will no longer sell.
4. Reach out to youth. Not sure how they can reach this group ….Any particular concerns that are specific to the young? Economic insecurity related to outsourcing of jobs?
Comment by Russ — November 3, 2008 #
God, am I the only one who feels it’s like Christmas Eve? How the hell am I supposed to fall asleep tonite? Ambien?
Russ– that’s a good start for republicans. Good luck convincing them to go that way (especially #3).
Comment by Troy — November 3, 2008 #
Here’s my prediction for 4pm tomorrwo, when the first polls close on these states:
Indiana- stays too close to call for an hour…
Georgia- ditto
Virginia- is called in 15 min. for Obama
Kentucky- is called for McC in 1-5 min.
Which is all great news. If they are able to call IN for Obama in the first hr., before other polls close, will the networks “declare” it?
Comment by Troy — November 3, 2008 #