Comments on: Politiporn http://petersmall.wordpress.com/2008/10/26/politiporn/ Tue, 03 Mar 2009 10:31:10 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Troy http://petersmall.wordpress.com/2008/10/26/politiporn/#comment-229 Troy Mon, 27 Oct 2008 06:41:49 +0000 http://petersmall.wordpress.com/?p=510#comment-229 I think that if he can beat Clinton's first term 370 and even 2nd term 379, it will go a long way to justifying a claim for a "mandate". It would then be the largest margin in 20 years (it seems unlikley he's top Bush I's 426), coupled with expanded majorities in both houses of congress. Who could argue against the mandate argument then besides Fox? Currently on 538, in his 10,000 election scenarios, the most common outcome BY FAR is Obama getting 375 EV (an astonishing 20% of the time he runs the scenarios-- 2K out of 10K). His average scenario is only 351 EV. You are getting ahead of your self, but I think that in 2012 Obama won't be able to break 533. Utah will never surrender to common sense. I think that if he can beat Clinton’s first term 370 and even 2nd term 379, it will go a long way to justifying a claim for a “mandate”. It would then be the largest margin in 20 years (it seems unlikley he’s top Bush I’s 426), coupled with expanded majorities in both houses of congress. Who could argue against the mandate argument then besides Fox?

Currently on 538, in his 10,000 election scenarios, the most common outcome BY FAR is Obama getting 375 EV (an astonishing 20% of the time he runs the scenarios– 2K out of 10K). His average scenario is only 351 EV.

You are getting ahead of your self, but I think that in 2012 Obama won’t be able to break 533. Utah will never surrender to common sense.

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