Politiporn

October 26, 2008 at 1:52 pm | In Uncategorized | 1 Comment

This is just some interesting trivia for you geeks out there:

During the Twentieth Century, there were only 3 presidents who won with less than 300 electoral votes:

1900   McKinley (R) 292 to Bryan 155

1916   Wilson (D) 277 to Huges 254

1976   Carter (D) 297 to Ford 240

During the same time period, there have also been 3 presidents who have gotten over 500 electorals:

1936   Roosevelt (D) 523 to Landon 8

1972   Nixon (R) 520 to McGovern 18

1984   Reagan (R) 525 to Mondale 13

I point this out just to say that we have gotten used to low victories and I think this serves as proof of how polarized our electorate has gotten in the last couple of decades.  In fact, Clinton’s 370 and 379 wins respectively were slightly below average.  14 of the 25 elections in the 20th Century saw victories above 400, while only 8 were in the 300 range.  So, Obama’s Clinton range victory will not be earth-shattering by the standards of the last 100 years but may be as good as it can get in this very divided country.

If he can pull off any portion of what he is promising, maybe Obama can have a breakout win in 2012.  It is worth pointing out that all 3 500+ wins were for 2nd terms.  Their first terms were:

Roosevelt  472

Nixon        301

Reagan      489

Chances are Obama’s going to beat Nixon’s first term victory, so who knows what 2012 brings.

Do you think I’m getting ahead of myself…

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  1. I think that if he can beat Clinton’s first term 370 and even 2nd term 379, it will go a long way to justifying a claim for a “mandate”. It would then be the largest margin in 20 years (it seems unlikley he’s top Bush I’s 426), coupled with expanded majorities in both houses of congress. Who could argue against the mandate argument then besides Fox?

    Currently on 538, in his 10,000 election scenarios, the most common outcome BY FAR is Obama getting 375 EV (an astonishing 20% of the time he runs the scenarios– 2K out of 10K). His average scenario is only 351 EV.

    You are getting ahead of your self, but I think that in 2012 Obama won’t be able to break 533. Utah will never surrender to common sense.


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