Politicana

Sorry non-Californians, but this is about local issue Proposition 8.  Of course, it should be of interest to everyone that reads this blog (PSA:  to donate or volunteer, go to NoOnProp8.com).

As you know, the polls have swung back and forth on this one.  During the summer, polls showed a majority of Californians supported gay marriage, then after a nasty Yes on 8 ad campaign, other polls show us a bit behind.  I’m anxiously awaiting the gold standard Field Poll’s last poll which is supposed to come out this week.  Looking at their website, I learned that when it comes to CA propositions, their final poll has sucessfully predicted the outcome 75/80 times in the last 12 years. 

Which 5 did they get wrong?

Proposition                                         FINAL POLL (y/n/und)       Actual result (y/n)

 2006-  Parental Abortion Notification              46/43/11                                    46/54

2004- Tort Limits                                              32/37/31                                    59/41

2004- Open Primaries                                        40/38/22                                   46/54

2000- School Bonds Threshold                          49/39/12                                   49/51

1996- Attorney Fee Limits                                 45/40/15                                    49/51

I’d say the only really surprising miss is the School bonds one.  The things these initiatives seem to have in common is not subject matter, but high undecideds, a close y/n spread, or both. 

So how did Prop 8 do in the first 2 Field polls this year?

July (old prop. wording)                                 42/51/7

Sept (newer wording “limit on marriage”)       35/55/7

So, obviously there are not a lot of undecideds when it comes to this issue (as opposed to tort limits).  I strongly expect the y/n division in this week’s poll to be much closer in light of the recent ad campaign and other polls which all show a tight race.  Damn interfering Mormons.

How successful has Field been in other “social” propositions, which are said to be hard to poll?

2000- Definition of Marriage                    53/40/7                                       61/39

2006- Parental Notification                    46/43/11                                       46/54

2006- Punishing Sex Offenders              76/11/13                                       71/29

2005- Parental Notification                     41/49/10                                     47/53

2003- Racial Privacy Initiative                35/49/16                                        36/64

1998-  Bilingual Ed.                                61/33/6                                           61/39

1996  Medical Marijuana                         59/35/6                                           56/44

1996  Anti-Affirmative Action                 46/41/13                                       55/45

Some of the above may or may not be too applicable to this year’s proposition.  Like prop 8, undecideds are mostly low. It seems the liberal/libertarian side of each measure scoops up more undecideds on some issues, and less on others (including, ominously (!) the anti-gay marriage initiative of 2000)  Also, except for 2006 parental notification, none were particularly close in the last poll, making their successful track record on social issues pretty easy. 

I predict their new poll will be very close– with one side up 1-3 points and with only 5-8% undecided.  I have to confess, when I satarted this post, I was hoping I would find trend x , which would reassure me of victory as long as i saw data y in this week’s final Field poll.  Instead, I’ve convinced myself there is no way to know.  Meaning, on 11/4 I’ll need some  Xanax to go along with my Obama champagne (kidding!– bad combo).  If someone sees something that would put my mind at ease, please let me know!  For example–  I’m trying to convince myself we will get more of the undecideds on election day ala 2006 Parental Notification, but it seems more likely that those “undecideds” are Yes votes that are shy about admitting this to pollsters, knowing it’s not the PC answer.  Drat!  [Side note:  Parental Notification this year is again ahead:  49/41/10  will history repeat itself and give the Field Poll their 6th miss?]  

Don’t forget to donate or sign up for volunteering (phone banking, holding up signs at intersections, data entry, letters to the editor) at www.NoOnProp8.com.