Obama Wins!
October 25, 2008 at 1:42 pm | In Uncategorized | 4 CommentsThat’s right, it is exactly 10 days since the last debate and, as I had promise in two previous posts, here is my prediction for November 4th:
OBAMA 364
McCain 174
Obama will carry the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, & Florida. Yes, I give him Florida because the momentum has stalled both nationally and in Florida and there does not currently appear to be any real tightening in the race (much to my surprise). Obama’s small lead in Florida has flatlined much like his larger national lead has.
Of course, this could change by election day and Florida is the one state most likely to flip from blue to red. In fact, here is my blue to red & red to blue flipping order:
Blue to Red Red to Blue
Florida Indiana
Missouri North Dakota
Nevada Montana
North Carolina
Ohio
I don’t think any other states have any chance of flipping at all. By the way, I give NC a lower chance than Nevade because of the projected African American turnout, as already indicated by absentee ballots.
So, basically, I think Barack’s win victory could be as low as 316 to 222 or as high as 381 to 157.
I am currently predicting a gain of 7 Senate seats: Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, North Carolina, & Oregon, with either Alaska or Minnesota filling the 7th spot.
A House pick up of 25-30 seats, which is a huge increase from the last set of predictions I made.
Oh, and the Missouri governorship.
So there.
Anyone want to bet against me?
btw- I haven’t been following the state house/senate races closely enough to make any sort of accurate prediction in that regard, though I do know that about a dozen of them could switch parties.
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Peter
Troy
Dan
rblume
wveil1
robertrlowe
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That’s my map as well… except I have IN going blue just barely. I think it will be “too close to call” for a while.. despite being the first state to close it’s polls (I believe). Networks will hold off on calling it a bit longer than normal, b/c it is traditionally so red. But it’s going blue.
I would add GA in my “possible flip” column… as b/w ND and Montana.
Are u giving out prizes to who gets this electoral college right?
Comment by Troy — October 25, 2008 #
I think Florida and Missouri are the weakest links in Obama’s win column, so in that sense I agree with you Peter. Indiana will stay red, barely. I still can’t believe we’re going to get North Carolina, but there you go …
Comment by Dan — October 25, 2008 #
If Obama still has some momentum (perhaps so small we can’t really see it in daily polling), it would not take much to give him Indiana. However, to think it could reach all the way to Georgia seems just a bit oo optimistic to me. It is possible that his 30 minute ad on Wednesday could spark another small bump for him. That might bag him ND and Montana but, unless he really hits it out of the park, he digs no deeper into red territory than that. Even that seems to be a stretch to me. Barring another big shocker, the only thing left to move the race is the ad and I doubt that’s worth much movement. At best, it might be enough to give him Indiana. A week from now, I think I will know the answer to that question.
Comment by Peter — October 26, 2008 #
46-4
46-4
46-4
Beer for me, YEAH!
Comment by Zed Ruhlen — October 28, 2008 #