Comments on: Put it in perspective http://petersmall.wordpress.com/2008/10/21/put-it-in-perspective/ Tue, 03 Mar 2009 10:31:10 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Russ http://petersmall.wordpress.com/2008/10/21/put-it-in-perspective/#comment-221 Russ Wed, 22 Oct 2008 23:13:23 +0000 http://petersmall.wordpress.com/?p=477#comment-221 I found this most reassuring and on election night, I will breathe a sigh of relief when any one of Ohio, Floridia, Pennsylvania or Nevada turns blue! I found this most reassuring and on election night, I will breathe a sigh of relief when any one of Ohio, Floridia, Pennsylvania or Nevada turns blue!

]]> By: Troy http://petersmall.wordpress.com/2008/10/21/put-it-in-perspective/#comment-220 Troy Wed, 22 Oct 2008 06:34:47 +0000 http://petersmall.wordpress.com/?p=477#comment-220 In the same post, Nate suggests that the Penn. strategy might be b/c: - They're about to unleash Rev. Wright which plays better there than CO or NM - They want to create *some* kind of story of "momentum"- and even if they think they can't win in PA, they are pretty far behind there now, can only go up, and some movement there would hopefully fuel a national story of "momentum" which could help in other states that are more in play. Good luck with that. In the same post, Nate suggests that the Penn. strategy might be b/c:
- They’re about to unleash Rev. Wright which plays better there than CO or NM
- They want to create *some* kind of story of “momentum”- and even if they think they can’t win in PA, they are pretty far behind there now, can only go up, and some movement there would hopefully fuel a national story of “momentum” which could help in other states that are more in play.
Good luck with that.

]]> By: Troy http://petersmall.wordpress.com/2008/10/21/put-it-in-perspective/#comment-219 Troy Wed, 22 Oct 2008 06:31:43 +0000 http://petersmall.wordpress.com/?p=477#comment-219 Speaking of not winning Penn., you may have read this today on 538: The big problem with such a strategy, however, is this: 4,060,647 2,917,747 869,707 Those are the current numbers of registered and active Democrats, Republicans and independents in Pennsylvania. Democrats make up more than half the total -- 52 percent, in fact -- well outdistancing the Republican's 33 percent. Suppose that McCain were to split Pennsylvania's independents with Obama and win Republicans 92-8. He would need to carry 23-24 percent of Pennsylvania's Democrats to win the state; George Bush carried 15 percent. Speaking of not winning Penn., you may have read this today on 538:

The big problem with such a strategy, however, is this:

4,060,647
2,917,747
869,707

Those are the current numbers of registered and active Democrats, Republicans and independents in Pennsylvania. Democrats make up more than half the total — 52 percent, in fact — well outdistancing the Republican’s 33 percent. Suppose that McCain were to split Pennsylvania’s independents with Obama and win Republicans 92-8. He would need to carry 23-24 percent of Pennsylvania’s Democrats to win the state; George Bush carried 15 percent.

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