Put it in perspective
October 21, 2008 at 11:15 pm | In Uncategorized | 3 Comments… or anywhere else you want to put it. But I found this map on Andrew Sullivan (linked from Poulos) that highlights John McCain’s current “best case scenario.”
Basically, he needs to win Pennsylvania. And Ohio and Florida and Nevada. But here’s the thing: he’s not going to win Pennsylvania.
Steady … steady.
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Speaking of not winning Penn., you may have read this today on 538:
The big problem with such a strategy, however, is this:
4,060,647
2,917,747
869,707
Those are the current numbers of registered and active Democrats, Republicans and independents in Pennsylvania. Democrats make up more than half the total — 52 percent, in fact — well outdistancing the Republican’s 33 percent. Suppose that McCain were to split Pennsylvania’s independents with Obama and win Republicans 92-8. He would need to carry 23-24 percent of Pennsylvania’s Democrats to win the state; George Bush carried 15 percent.
Comment by Troy — October 21, 2008 #
In the same post, Nate suggests that the Penn. strategy might be b/c:
- They’re about to unleash Rev. Wright which plays better there than CO or NM
- They want to create *some* kind of story of “momentum”- and even if they think they can’t win in PA, they are pretty far behind there now, can only go up, and some movement there would hopefully fuel a national story of “momentum” which could help in other states that are more in play.
Good luck with that.
Comment by Troy — October 21, 2008 #
I found this most reassuring and on election night, I will breathe a sigh of relief when any one of Ohio, Floridia, Pennsylvania or Nevada turns blue!
Comment by Russ — October 22, 2008 #