Politicana

So, the last debate is over and, as I’m sure you call know, most viewers have considered Obama the decisive winner of all three debates.  According to the CNN/ORC poll, it breaks down like this:

Who do you think won the debate?

1st debate:     Barack 51%      McCain 38%

2nd debate:    Barack 54%      McCain 30%

3rd debate:     Barack 58%      McCain 31%

Not only do almost twice as many viewers see Barack as the winner each time but the number actually grows with each debate.  This trend is true, in general, when the candidates are compared on a variety of issues.  Barack leads solidly on every question asked on yesterday’s poll.  Here is just a sample:

Do you view the candidate favorably?

Barack 68%       McCain 49%

Who is stronger on the economy?

Barack 59%      McCain 35% 

Who is stronger on the current financial crisis?

Barack 56%      McCain 35% 

Health care?

Barack 62%      McCain 31% 

Taxes?

Barack 56%      McCain 41% 

More likeble?

Barack 70%      McCain 22% 

Stronger leader

Barack 56%      McCain 39% 

Spent more time attacking his opponent

Barack 7%      McCain 80% 

Though they were not asked this time, after the last debate Obama lead on “protecting Social Security,” “The war in Iraq,” and “an unexpected major crisis.”  The only one he did not lead on was “the campaign against terrorism” and he only lost that by 6 points (down from 20 points before the debates started).

I think it is safe to call the debates an unqualified success for Barack.  So, why is this called a preemptive post?   Because I want to head of the ensuing panic when Barack starts to drop slightly in the polls. 

All current predictions have him winning well over 300 electoral votes on election day.  He has lead in ALL of the last 37 polls and every single day of the Gallup Daily Tracker going back 31 days.  Over the past week of polling, he has lead by an average of 8.45 points.  This is a big lead and he is likely to get a small bump out of last night’s debate.  But, then what…?

It is unlikely (very very unlikely) that his polling numbers can continue to climb much more.  There just aren’t that many folks left out there to divide up.  Much more likely, his numbers are going to stabilize and then start to slowly drop.  DON”T FREAK OUT.  Numbers always tighten as you get close to an election.  If Obama has not lost half his lead by election day, this is going to be a huge blow out.  For now, I think Obama’s lead will drop to about 5 points just before election day.  Right now, I am guessing this will resut in modest win (more than either Bush win but less than Clinton in ‘96), however, I will be able to make a better prediction in about 10 days (just as I initially had said in my post on September 11th).