Politicana

I will keep this post short because I don’t think there is much to say.  As I am sure you all know by now, most viewers in the CNN and CBS insta-polls again thought that Obama won the debate.  In the last two debates, these polls correctly predicted what other polling would find several days after each debate, so I consider them to be pretty accurate.  That said, the numbers are such:

CBS

Who won?  Obama 39%, McCain 27%, Tie 35%

Strong on economy?  Obama 68%, McCain 49%

CNN

Who won?  Obama 54%, McCain 30%

Who have a favorable opinion of?  Obama 64%, McCain 51%

Who is the stronger leader?  Obama 54%, McCain 43%

Who is more likeable?  Obama 65%, McCain 28%

In other words, a solid win across the board for Obama.  The real question is, why?

Honestly, I watched the debate and I did not think he did that much better than McCain did on answering questions, certainly not 14 points better.  In fact, I would call it a draw.  Yet, as I was watching the ticker at the bottom of the screen on CNN and the instant feedback from undecided voters, it was clear to me they thought Obama was leading.  He just generally registered a level or two more positively on most answers.  His answers frequently got very high responses and McCain’s seldom did; when McCain went negative, his numbers dropped every time but Obama’s didn’t always drop.  Even on answers where I thought McCain answered better, Obama often scored highter.  Why? 

My best guess would be just that voters have decided they like Obama more.  On a personal level, he seems more friendly, engaging and concerned about them.  So, they give him more leeway in his answers because they expect to like them.  If this is true, McCain has an impossible task ahead of him.  How does he drag down Obama’s likeability without destroying his own? 

I suspect he will continue to go negative this week but without much effect. My guess is that Obama’s numbers will, at worst, stall until the next debate but are more likely to continue climbing modestly.  He will then handily win the last debate and, barring an extremely unlikely event, the race will be effectively over.

In fact, I am so confident of that, I have decided to stop phone banking for Obama and start phone banking for a local Board of Supervisors race instead.