Politicana

So, here is my down and dirty assessment about an hour after the debate is over:

For the most part, I would call this a tie.  At least, it is certainly not a game changer for either side.  Sarah Palin held her own, partly because of those low expectations that have been discussed previously.  However, I think her lack of substance will be noticeable to independant voters.  Also, I think her snide and catty in parts and that this will hurt her with independants, particualrly women.  Plus, I don’t think the cutsy, soccer mom, joe six-pack comments will have been as effective as she thought.

Joe did what he needed to.  I think he had an exceptionally strong performance.  He did exactly what he needed to– he sounded knowledgeable (more knowledgable than she was, even about her own running mate), he stayed on message, he repeated key points forcefully and he did not lose his calm.

I think you will see a hardening amongst certain core groups or perceptions.  Women will pull toward Obama in larger numbers, while white men will shift further toward McCain.  My guess would be that, overall, women thought Biden won this debate and white men thought Palin did.  Also, I think the number of voters who see Palin as qualified will increase, maybe by as much as 10 points (she is at 38% on this question in the CBS poll released today).  However, I think Biden’s numbers in this area will also increase, probably not as much but then he is already at 70% in the same poll.

As the dust settles,  I think we will see exactly what I predicted in the “Palin by comparison” post; a bump of one or two points in McCain’s direction, that is actually really a small correction from Obama’s recent surge in the polls.  That bump will last a few days and we gone by the next debate.

As I said, no game changers here.