Politicana

As I had suspected, Obama-Biden have steadily improved in both the national and state-by-state polls as the McCalin bubble has popped.  They now sit just slightly better than they were before the conventions, which is to say, in a modest lead (a +4.0 points average over the last 10 national polls, all of which Obama leads in).

So, with a bit of momentum, we head into the debates.  Barring any international drama/personal scandals, I think the debates are the last real hurdle Obama and Biden have to clear; do a good job on these and I think they head into the election in a comfortable place.

So, given that I am sure David Plouffe reads my blog daily, I thought I would share what I think our guys need to do/not do during these debates:

Obama:

I think the critical goal for Barack is to find a way to drive home the specifics of his agenda.  Most polling shows that half of voters still don’t have enought information on his plans (the exact same number say the same thing about McCain, btw).  Yet, as we all know, Barack’s plans are well thought out and very specific, unlike McCain’s.  The debates are his best chance to show this.  As such, he should have a bunch of pithy, concise ways to sum up his specifics (eg “That’s a great question, Jim.  I have a 4 point plan…”).  The key is for him to continue to answer question after question with fact based (but concise) answers, while McCain does his usually hemming and hawing.  If people watching the debate come to understand that Barack really really knows his shit, then the debates will serve their most important purpose– to drive home the idea of who is really prepared to lead on day one.

What Barack has to avoid doing is making sweeping rhetorical speeches (and I doubt he will) or being petty/overly snide.  Too many clever quips will excite the base but make him look mean-spirited to independants.  Despite what DeanDemocrat says on Kos (see the post below), I don’t think clever remarks like “you’re no Jack Kennedy” move the electorate that much.  There is a big temptation behind making a remark like, if McCain is stumbling over an answer, Obama could say, “You know, Tom, if John needs more time, I could answer that question while he thinks about it.”  However, I think it is a toss up how that plays with independants.

Also, he needs to really learn from his debates with Clinton (I can’t imagine that he hasn’t)– he has a tendency to get irritated and pout when things aren’t going his way or he thinks the question are unfair.  Even if it is true, he cannot, cannot, cannot do that in these debates.  I think that is his biggest Achilles heel.  McCain will attempt to put him on the defensive; he will be mean and dishonest.  Obama cannot be shaken or look upset. 

Biden:

On some levels, I actually think Biden has it easier.  For most viewers, expectations for Palin will still be very high, so she is almost certain to let people down.  What Joe needs to do is hammer home his experience, but not by comparing himself to Palin (he should effectively ignore her).  He should just site it with every opportunity (eg “Well, Gwen, as you recall when the markets collapsed in 1987, those of us in Congress…” or “When I was in Georgia addressing this very issue…”).  What I mean is, I think that it is a minefield to call her out on her lack of experience directly, there is just too much chance he will look bullying to viewers.  I think it is better just to show how knowledgeable he is and let her pale by comparison.  If she does slip up, he could say something like, “actually Sarah, that’s not entirely accurate, when I met with President Sarkovy…”  Other than that, I would avoid taking her on directly.

And, actually, that is my one, big concern with him.  I think she will hang herself in this debate if she is given enough rope.  However, the Republicans will be hoping for a typical Biden cutting remark that they can scream about later.  In fact, I bet Palin tries to draw it out of him.  He must have the discipline to not take the bait.  The one place where he might be safe is around her foreign policy pow-wow earlier today.  I think she has opened the door for him there.  If she tries to mention one of those meetings during the debates (and how could she not?  That is why they held them), he could easily (and w/ little risk) say something like, “Sarah, one meeting does not give you foreign policy experience.  That would be like me meeting once with a hockey player and now wanting to coach the Red Wings.”

Now, in terms of my predictions:

Given that the first debate is about foreign policy issues, I think McCain has a natural advantage and I am glad we are getting this debate out of the way first.  Unless Obama really comes out strong (or McCain falls on his face), I would guess that a tie (or even slight Obama win) will lead to a small McCain bump in the polls.  That’s because just talking about international issues is likely to reinforce that fact that most voters just think that McCain is better prepared on those issues.  So, I would guess we will see a 2-3 point dip in Obama’s numbers next week, leaving Obama at around +1 or +2 just before the VP debates.

As I said above, I think Biden has a bit of an advantage going into that debate.  However, because it is the VP debate, I don’t expect it to move the polls that much (again, unless catastrophe strikes either side).  I think Palin’s bubble and collapse have pretty much occured.  Even a clear Biden victory is only likely to produce a +1 shift, and possibly no real change at all.

I can’t begin to predict who has the advantage in the “town hall” debate scheduled for October 7th.  McCain seems to strongly prefer this format, though I have idea why.  I think it would give Obama an opportunity to highlight his clever quips and rapport with an audience.  So, for now, I am calling this one a wash.

The last debate obviously speaks to Obama’s strength and I think it is an unbelievable coup that he got this schedule.  If he really shines there, then I think he could see as much as a 4 point bounch, coming just 3 weeks before election day.

If that is the case, then he should be right back to (or slightly higher than) where he is right now.  I think that is a good place to be entering November.