Politicana

I have been waiting to write this post until after McCain’s bump had peaked.  His numbers have now been stable for the last 4 days, so I think we are there.  Having said that, I am cautiously taking a sigh of relief.  I think the momentum coming off Hurricane Palin could have been worse.

The polls from the last 7 days are as such:

Gallup daily tracker                    McCain +4

Fox/Opinion Dynamics              McCain +3

Democracy Corps                      McCain +2

ABC/Washington Post                McCain +2

Diageo/Hotline                          McCain +2

CNN/Opinion Research              Dead even

Rasmussen Reports                    Dead even

NBC/Wallstreet Journal               Obama +1

ARG                                            Obama +1

Daily Kos Pres Tracking Poll       Obama +2

And, of course there is the infamous USA Today/Gallup that the press has been yelping about, in which McCain leads by 10 points.  I feel the need to put that in context.  These are their likely voter numbers (their registered voter numbers from the same poll cut the lead in half to +5 and have now shrunk to +4 as listed above).  Why discount likely voter numbers, you ask?  Well, the way they determine those numbers is by looking at which demographics were more likely to vote in previous elections and then weighing their votes more heavily.  Well, in previous elections, whites voted more often than blacks, wealthy people more than poor people, the elderly more than the young… you see my point.  Gallup’s likely voter numbers are going to automatically skew Republican because they will undervalue the very people most likely to vote for Obama and, incidentally, the very people that appear likely to vote in record numbers this time.

So, what do we have?  After McCain has likely thrown the best of what he has at Obama (his convention, his shock & awe running mate), he still is only holding a composite +.9 points on Obama.  In fact, this advantage is so low, I keep thinking it has to go up some more.  At this point, the momentum may look like McCains but, personally, I think he has real cause for concern.  The proof of this will be in the next couple of weeks.

The first debate will be on September 26.  Both Obama’s and McCain’s convention effects will have worn off entirely by then.  The only question left will be, was the Palin effect a real bump or just a bubble?  If it is just a bubble (and that is my first blush guess), then a basic regression to the mean will occur and Obama would gain 1-3 points over the next couple of weeks, putting most polls back at between McCain +1 and Obama +3 or 4.  However, if Palin has had a lasting effect on voters, then you would expect the numbers to stay about even. 

(btw- I will hold out two unlikely alternatives: A) she has some amazing air time between now and the debates and their numbers continue to climb or B) something else breaks into the national consciousness and their numbers plummet)

Excluding either of those, I think Obama enters the debates as the odds on favorite, either slightly behind or slightly ahead in the polls.  That is not to say the debates will be easy.  Obama is the presumptive winner, which puts a burden on him and lowers expectations for McCain.   And, while Palin is the presumptive winner going into her debate, Biden has a challenge to figure out how to highlight her inexperience without looking like he is picking on her.  Not an impossible task (and I know the Obama camp is up for it) but a tricky one none-the-less.  And really, truly, I think Obama Biden have the edge and will likely pull it off in the debates, ending up strengthen their lead once it is all done.

So, for now, we have a couple of quite weeks and some settling in the polls.  We then get a whirlwind 2 1/2 weeks of debates, another 10 days to let the dust settle, and then I’ll tell you who our next president is going to be.