Why McCain/Palin Might Win….
September 10, 2008 at 2:06 pm | In Uncategorized | 8 Comments1. Voting is not based on rational self-interest and policy preferences. Voting is largely based on a gut level feeling of conection to a candidate. On a subconscious level, Americans have an Archetype image of the word “President” and unfortunately for Obama, this image is white. Therefore, even voters who would normally classify themselves as “non-racist” still have a subconscious bias against Obama.
2. A good portion (15-20%) of the democratic base harbors some degree of “overt racism” and though they will claim other reasons for not voting for Obama, this is the “true” reason. These blue-collar, rural, union workers who are otherwise reliable voters will either stay at home or become “McCain-Democrats”.
3. A good portionof the Hillary primary voters feel that “sexism” is what cost her the nomination. Though I believe there is no basis in fact for this notion, John McCain picked Sarah Palin to appeal to this group of alienated white women. Palin gives many of these women a chance to vote against Obama.
4. Young voters who are predicted to vote for Obama will only turn out if he is able to maintain his ability to inspire them and make them think he will fundamentally change things. Some of Obama’s”walk-on-water” status has faded as this election cycle has degraded into traditional poltics which alienates the young, ideallist voters.
5. Palin unified the evangelical base who would have otherwise had only tepid support for McCain. This is the other reason McCain chose her. This “base turnout” might be enough to sway critical swing states like Ohio and Virgina.
6. The War in Iraq is perceived to be going well and the “get out now” scream of the Democratic left will be successfully spun as “cut-and-run”. The current “success” of the war in Iraq will nullify this issue for Obama and if he trys to push it, will alienate critical “independent voters” who are middle-of-the-road on this isue.
7. The empire in decline: history has showed that when civilization have passed there peak of power and are in decline (as I would argue that the U.S. is now in decline), the citizens translate the insecurity due to this loss of status into a conservative impulse to restore the good old days. This does not bode well for Obama who presents himself as the “new kind of politics”.
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Peter
Troy
Dan
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On the other hand, Obama needs only to hold the Kerry states and find 18 more EVs. Florida would take care of that all by itself (and leave some wiggle room in case he lost NH or something). And I’ve heard Palin doesn’t play well in FL (but I haven’t seen any data to back that up).
If the Obama campaign knows what it’s doing (and evidence indicates it does) then we have to keep reminding ourselves that this is not a national election. Sure, the media keep yammering about tracking polls and he said-she said stuff, but in the end, it comes down to voter outreach in swing states.
I agree, Colorado and Virginia could be more problematic with Palin onboard the Same Old Express, but Virginia and New Mexico would be enough, by themselves, to guarantee victory, never mind Iowa, Nevada, or even Missouri.
I think the fundamentals are still with us on this one. Palin has successfully gotten inside our heads. We need to get her out as soon as possible.
Comment by Dan — September 10, 2008 #
According to polling out today:
Florida is now tied 48/48.
McCain has lost some ground in Colorado (he was up by 1 and is now down by 3).
McCain has gained 6 points and now leads by 2 in New Mexico.
Montana and N Dakota have moved dramatically and are now out of reach for us.
Ohio has also widened. McCain is up by 7.
New Hampshire moves toward us by 5 points, Obama now leads 51/45.
No real change in Missouri, Pennsylvanian, Virginia, NC, Wisc.
I will update my “current predictions” when I have seen a bit more but, basically, Dan is right. The state by states look good for Barack. The only real surprise to me is New Mexico. Let’s see if it holds. According to these numbers, even if he lost NM, he could win just by picking up Virginia, Florida, or Colorado + Nevada. None of which is a long shot. And we still have not had the debates.
Would somebody please give Russ a Xanax? Or, at least stop pissing in his cereal.
Comment by Peter — September 10, 2008 #
Damn it, I really want Obama to win Montana. And ND too.
I’m a little surprised by NM– but there are a *lot* of crazy evangelicals in the southern 1/2 of the state.
I think Obama will ultimately win, but I have a feeling I am going to need some Xanax myself before this is all over— this was NOT supposed to be yet another nail-biter like 2000 and 2004!
Comment by Troy — September 11, 2008 #
I have no idea what “pissing in his cereal” means, but … go Quakes!
Comment by Dan — September 11, 2008 #
Is he like this at your Earthquakes games too, Dan? Does he go on and on with your fellow fans/friends, enumerating the reasons the Quakes might lose tonite’s game?
“1. Mullen isn’t on the team anymore to inspire everyone to greatness….”
Comment by Troy — September 11, 2008 #
Well, imagine how you would feel if somebody pissed in your cereal.
Comment by Peter — September 11, 2008 #
Reason 8: I saw a Prius in the bay area with a McCain/Palin sticker on it! That ain’t right!
Comment by Russ — September 12, 2008 #
Did a little voice inside your head say, “Don’t look back, you can never go back?”
Comment by Dan — September 12, 2008 #