Politicana

According to the Gallup daily tracking poll, Obama’s numbers against McCain in the national head-to-head have progressed like this over the course of the Democratic Convention:

Monday, 8/25 (the baseline taken before anyone speaks):    

Obama   44%     McCain   46%      -2

Tuesday, 8/26 (polling done after Teddy’s & Michelle’s speeches):    

Obama   45%     McCain   44%      +1

Wednesday, 8/27 (polling done after Hillary’s speech):    

Obama   48%     McCain   42%      +6

Thursday, 8/28 (polling after Bill’s & Biden’s speeches):    

Obama   49%     McCain   41%      +8

Friday, 8/29 (after Obama’s acceptance speech):

Obama   49%     McCain   41%      +8

The fact that there was no additional bump from Obama’s speech is a surprise, especially given how popular it was and I suspect that is due to the news of Sarah Palin effectively cutting into his numbers.

Stil, that is a total bump of +10 thus far.  Not bad, given that Poblano’s numbers had said that anything above +6 represented a better than expected gain for Obama.

I would expect the Palin announcement to cut into those numbers starting on Sunday and that they will sink all week.  Poblano had predicted a 2% bounce from the Republican Convention but I think Palin will make it bigger, perhaps creating a slight lead for McCain in the polls by next weekend.

Speaking of which, Obama’s speech was viewed by 38 million people last night.  Just to put that into context (as quoted from the AP),

Nielsen Media Research said more people watched Obama speak than watched the Olympics opening ceremony in Beijing, the final “American Idol” or the Academy Awards this year.

The speech was viewed as “excellent” or “good” by 58% of those who saw it and was viewed unfavorably by only 7%.